Bitcoin, Markets

Bitcoin may have a tough time charting a V-shaped recovery to recent highs in the short term, with on-chain activity showing increased selling pressure in the market.

Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant’s exchange inflow indicator – which measures the 144-block (roughly 24-hour) average of mean bitcoin deposits across major cryptocurrency exchanges – has risen to 2.5 bitcoin, the highest level since March 20.

In other words, the average size of inward-bound transactions to trading platforms has risen to eight-month highs.

Bitcoin, Markets
Bitcoin: All exchange inflow mean
Source: CryptoQuant

“The data shows whales [large traders] are transferring their coins to exchanges,†CryptoQuant CEO Ki-Young Ju told CoinDesk. “The cryptocurrency usually trades in a sideways-to-negative manner when whales become active on exchanges.â€

Bitcoin is trading near $16,820 at press time, representing a 2% drop on a 24-hour basis. The cryptocurrency saw rejection above $17,400 early on Friday.

The possibility of prices falling to or below Thursday’s low of $16,327 cannot be ruled out with average inflows now moving above 2 bitcoin – into CryptoQuant’s “danger zone.â€

Bitcoin, Markets
Bitcoin: All exchange inflow mean (2020)
Source: CryptoQuant

An above-2.00 reading on the indicator has consistently paved the way for notable price drops this year. The indicator rose above that level at least a week before the 40% drop seen on March 12.

Bitcoin, Markets
Bitcoin: All exchange inflow mean (2018)
Source: CryptoQuant

Similarly, the sharp sell-off seen in November 2018 was preceded by a sharp rise in the metric.

Technical chart studies indicate low odds of an immediate bounce to levels above $19,000.

Bitcoin, Markets
Bitcoin daily chart
Source: TradingView

Thursday’s price drop was backed by the highest sell volume (red bar) since June 1. As such, the pullback looks to have legs. Short-term momentum indicators such as the 5- and 10-day moving averages are now looking south.

Support is seen at $15,798 – the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from September low to November high.

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